Corsi Star Power : Pittsburgh vs Washington Round Two 4/26

With a premier matchup for Round 2, Corsi star power will play a pivotal role in ferreting out the winner here.  Washington has home ice advantage due to their dominant regular season over the rest of the league.  Pittsburgh has returned to form after a disappointing season a year ago.  Good Day and welcome to APEX Hockey Betting.  Today, we will look at puck possession of two individuals.  Crosby and Ovechkin take center ice in our analysis to determine the series winner which opens up on Friday, April 29th.

Corsi Star Power – % Shots Taken

The league either does not have the resources or have judged it is not worth it to track individual possession of the puck while they are on the ice.  Therefore, in regards to one player, we look their teams percentage of shots taken against the overall while they are on the ice.  Both players see their team get more of a percentage of shots when they are on the ice as seen below.

  • Caps as a team 49.7% : Ovechkin 53.2% on ice
  • Pens as a whole 51.9% : Crosby 54.5%

Both players push the action but we look at one facet of the each team’s play to sense which one has been more consistent in their play.

Breakout vs Restraint

Pittsburgh has been true to their season form in their game play.  They rely greatly on breakouts carried by the forwards to propel the tempo.  They beat the Rangers in five games that were not that close.  Now they face the Caps who have become overtly physical in their first round.  Washington has a 2-1-2 defensive formation in which they pound the puck carrier and at the same time try to restrain the safer options up the ice.  This worked against the Flyers but they became overtly cautious when feeling pressured.  The team with the better record will have to make more adjustments in this series.

Series Price

  • Pittsburgh to Win +100
  • Caps to Win -120

This is the series price to advance to the next round.  Some are more than slightly surprised at this.  APEX Hockey betting has a two part series on NHL Wagering with Corsi Metrics that help out the thought process.  The star power has a slight advantage to the Pens.  The be true to yourself identity is more towards Pittsburgh.  It is very good that Washington has shown the willingness to get physical, it detracts from their potent offensive style.  All that factored in gives us that Pittsburgh should be even money here.

Alas the lines are not about wagering truth but to balance the action.  If the price was -110 each, the lemmings would storm even more on Washington.  Not wanting to risk this level of exposure, the books gave this line.  More betting on both sides but we at APEX Hockey Betting see through this mirage.  Take the Pens +100 to win their second round series against the Caps.