Dangers of MoneyLine Every Game and Corsi Part Two

NHL Corsi

In the first part of the series, we were examining the metric Corsi percentage and how it could be used for hockey wagering.  The stats were looked at and it was given that the San Jose Sharks were vastly underperforming in their record against the perceived possession that their hockey team was getting.  The pronouncement was made that this team would be the one to watch.  They had two games this week.  Let us look at what happened in each and the unit result if we bet on each and equally.

Calgary 2 at San Jose 0

It is always good to win the first one is a sentiment seen in almost every sport.  The Flames have been one of the underdog moneyline darlings all year as their 15-8-2 record coupled with an 18-7 ATS has been money in our pockets.  Even in this one, the Sharks were spotting heavy home chalk near -193.  Had it not been for the system, this was not a situation to go with this much vig against the Flames.  Indeed Calgary won the game as they withstood a 32-19 shot disadvantage.  Niemi only gave up one goal with 18 saves but Ramo shut out the Sharks and then did the same against the Coyotes in the next game.  They won the corsi but got outplayed short term.  0-1 -1.93U

Corsi percentage

Sharks 6 at home against Ducks 4

Two different games all in one.  San Jose stormed out and got the puck to bounce their way.  A 5-1 lead let them coast the rest of the way.  The Sharks had a slight shot edge 35 to 34 with a 14 to 5 advantage in the first when the big push was made.  The Moneyline was at -138 so no bargain for SJ.  1-1 -0.93U

Even with a firm system in place, the way to make money during the NHL season would be selective wagering.  Few people would have bothered with the Sharks at that price against Calgary in the regular season.  In fact, under dog wagering would have made it juicy to go the other way short term.  Now the Corsi percentage makes it juicy to use for futures involving playoff hunts and division chances where they is substantial plus to the wager.  We will continue to track this while next weeks piece will start to focus on underdog wagering.  Stay tuned while we now juggle two theories.  The Sharks hot streak is coming, we just have to survive until it gets here.