Hockey Handicapping and Metrics Made Easy Part One : Fenwick and Corsi

NHL Metrics

In a world of touts and bad comedy teams, Fenwick and Corsi sounds like the last stop on a Vaudeville tour.  However, make no mistake that these two names are actually terms that can raise your hockey handicapping ability.  They are technically metrics and attempt to quantify on ice dominance.  They are nice easy numbers that relate to on ice puck possession that teams have on even strength.  The first part of this series will give you their definitions and from there we will apply it our our hockey wagering patterns.

No More Minding the Stopwatch

Possession and how long you were in a particular end was one just judged only by the means of time.  This was both labor intensive and gave an incomplete picture to the quality of time one has with the puck.  On the scene comes Fenwick and Corsi who were determined to approach this more by scoring opportunities and arrived at the road in similar but not exact fashions.  Here is how they comprise their metrics

  • Fenwick = Shots on goal + missed shots
  • Corsi = Fenwick + blocked shots

NHL Free Pick

Just More Mindless Numbers Until You Apply Them

They look attractive in the box score but what use are they to us who wager hard earned money on hockey.  Well, firstly it is a barometer to tell if the team is actually doing its job well or the results are from an over achieving net minder.  If it appears that the number is from the goalie standing on his head, we have found a nugget to work with.  We can work into our long range plans that Team X will eventually come down to Earth and we will be there to record the thud.  Also, we can readily be prepared to lean on their opponents when the first string goal tender of our fade hits the bench.  Finally, something we can sink our teeth into.

While this is an overly simple example, we are amassing more knowledge.  It assists us in being more logical and actually having reasons to wager instead of instincts.  Over the course of the NHL season, we will go deeper and introduce more metrics.  We will form marriages based on numbers, keep what works, and discard the rest.  In short, we help each other become stronger.  My name is Bobbie Granville and I will be here go guide us all into metrics and NHL handicapping.

 

Next Week : More of the same and a free pick based on our increased knowledge.

Until then, visit the forums at TGF and ATB to jump on some relevant and informative hockey banter.